Rasim Huseynov
Managing Editor of Seamless Trade and International Trade Consultant at Tevolution Ltd
Looking at the outcomes of COP29 is both an objective analysis and a matter of perspective. Whether the glass is half full or half empty is subjective, but the undeniable reality is that we have moved forward from where we were. Significant changes and acknowledgments at COP29 should inspire optimism without complacency. The outcomes of COP29 will only be as impactful as our ability to implement them.
We will provide a deeper analysis of the outcomes in our next article. For now, I want to focus on the elements that initially made me optimistic about COP29. These factors, combined with the geopolitical backdrop and organizational efforts, helped shape the positive trajectory of the conference. My earlier reflections can be found in my pre-COP29 article: Can the Power of Trade Serve the Climate Change Agenda? Highlights on the Eve of COP29 in Baku. Below are ten reasons that contributed to the success of COP29 and why its outcomes bring good news for the world.
1. Climate Change Takes Centre Stage in Global Governance
The scale of environmental degradation and the unpredictable, unmanageable nature of its destructive power have solidified climate change as one of humanity’s greatest threats. COP29 reinforced the necessity of collective governance, even amidst geopolitical rivalries. Denying the need for collective action is increasingly seen as untenable, as each nation becomes more dependent on global negotiations for survival.
2. The EU’s Leadership in Climate Action
The EU has reaffirmed its role as a climate leader, using its regulatory power and influence to champion multilateral environmental agreements. Its continued commitment to the Paris Agreement and proactive stance on global climate policies have kept the climate agenda alive, especially as other powers waver.
3. The UK’s Emergence as a Bold Climate Leader
Despite Brexit stigma and scepticism about its multilateral commitments, the UK made a strong impression with ambitious targets. Its pledge to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035 set a high standard for other nations. Actions like launching the Global Clean Power Alliance demonstrated tangible leadership beyond rhetoric. While the UK’s isolationist image still lingers, its deeds during COP29 spoke louder than words.
4. China and India as Renewable Powerhouses
China and India’s dominance in renewable energy supply chains underscores the economic realignments taking place in the climate era. Both nations have taken leading roles in solar and wind technology production, driven by their economies of scale. While this creates trade imbalances with the Global North, it also ensures their relevance in global climate negotiations. Their vested economic interests in scaling renewable energy infrastructure propelled their proactive engagement at COP29.
5. Pre-empting U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
The looming threat of a second U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under a Trump presidency pushed developing countries to secure their economic interests. This urgency helped drive consensus, as any deal was deemed better than no deal in the face of uncertainty. The fear of stagnation acted as a unifying force, even as the world braced for potential shifts in U.S. climate leadership.
6. Azerbaijan as a Neutral Host
Baku’s selection as the venue was strategically significant. As a non-aligned country with a balanced foreign policy, Azerbaijan provided a conducive environment for dialogue. Its geopolitical neutrality and absence of colonial ties helped bridge divides among stakeholders, fostering a spirit of collaboration. This unique positioning allowed ideas to float freely, creating fertile ground for consensus.
7. Azerbaijan’s Commitment to Hosting COP29
Azerbaijan went above and beyond in its organisational efforts, providing free electric buses and state-of-the-art venues. While some missteps, such as high food prices, drew criticism, the overall execution was praised by participants and the Secretariat. The camaraderie and hospitality exhibited by the host nation underscored its commitment to global climate action, despite its history as an oil-producing country.
8. Camaraderie Among the COP Presidencies
The camaraderie between the UAE (former presidency), Azerbaijan (current presidency), and Brazil (future presidency) fostered a spirit of collaboration rather than rivalry. This rare alignment created an environment of trust and paved the way for meaningful dialogue. By focusing on shared goals rather than individual agendas, the troika set a positive tone for COP29 and established a strong foundation for continued progress at COP30 in Brazil.
9. Unwavering Support from the UNFCCC Secretariat
The UNFCCC Secretariat and the Secretary-General played a critical role in driving urgency and unity. Their insistence on leaving no developing country behind helped maintain momentum and ensured that COP29 delivered meaningful outcomes for vulnerable nations. This unwavering support acted as a stabilizing force during moments of potential collapse.
10. Renewed Focus on the Global Green Economy
COP29 highlighted the unstoppable momentum of the green economy. Beyond the formal negotiations, the vibrant presence of businesses, civil society, and stakeholders demonstrated the global appetite for sustainable growth. Initiatives like the Global Clean Power Alliance and commitments from countries like Indonesia and Mexico underscored the growing alignment between economic interests and environmental responsibility.
Conclusion: A Victory in Climate Narrative Chess
COP29 was far from perfect, but it marked a turning point in the global climate narrative. It reminded us that progress is possible even in the face of geopolitical tension and scepticism. The outcomes of COP29 are a testament to the power of collective action and strategic diplomacy. As we look to COP30 in Brazil, the challenge will be turning these commitments into tangible results.
I personally held my breath throughout COP29—what about you? Your feedback and comments are welcome as we continue to reflect on this critical moment for the planet.
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